Prediction Market Lawsuits: Kalshi, Polymarket and the States

8 prediction market lawsuits are on record as of 14 November 2026, and 5 of them name Kalshi as plaintiff or defendant. They run along three lines: states, tribes and a city suing operators in their own courts, operators suing states in federal court, and the CFTC suing states to defend its jurisdiction.

The appeals courts have split on whether federal commodities law overrides state gambling law, and the Supreme Court has three petitions with responses due on 7 December 2026. Has any of this put money in a user's pocket?

Status is the court order, not app availability; the Louisiana order is a ten-day temporary order of 12 November 2026 whose text was not retrieved; checked 14 November 2026.

No open settlement: no prediction market lawsuit has paid a consumer

No prediction market lawsuit has produced a payout to any consumer: no consumer settlement, claim form or payment date exists in this category as of 14 November 2026.

The one settlement on record is a CFTC penalty paid to the U.S. Treasury. Across all gambling lawsuits by category, only 4 US consumer settlements accept claims today, and none is a prediction market case.

A complaint states one side's allegations, only the court's orders decide anything, and every money figure in this category is a penalty, an order term or a pleading. The table shows the four figures that circulate most and where each one went.

Anyone who lost money can follow the claims that do exist in the open gambling class action settlements by deadline tracker, which lists no prediction market case.

The numbers in brief

The 8 cases split into 4 operator suits against regulators, 0 attorney-general suits against operators, 1 consumer class actions, 0 individual suits, 1 CFTC suits against states and 1 regulator orders or regulator-filed cases. Who are the parties, and where are the courts?

The first table counts the cases by status and where they sit; the second shows how the category borders the others on this site.

Related records sit in other categories: criminal cases against gambling operators, betting integrity cases, industry disputes in gambling, licensing and administrative court cases, data breach lawsuits, gambling tax litigation and advertising and marketing lawsuits.

Lawsuits by company

A handful of operators and one agency account for every case in this category, and one of them, Kalshi, sits on one side or the other of more than half.

Which of these suits has actually stopped a product? Only the state court orders in the enforcement section below.

Kalshi: 5 cases as plaintiff and defendant

Kalshi (KalshiEX LLC, Kalshi Inc. and the affiliates Kalshi Klear and Kalshi Trading) is a party in 5 of the 8 cases: a defendant in 2 and a plaintiff in 4, with 1 consolidated matters counting on both sides.

KalshiEX has been a CFTC-designated contract market since 2020, and the Ninth Circuit recorded that sports contracts were over 90 percent of its trades and 95 percent of its revenue in 2025.

Polymarket, Robinhood, Coinbase and Crypto.com

Polymarket is named in 2 cases through three entities, Blockratize, QCX LLC (Polymarket US) and Adventure One QSS, and is the only operator pursued by regulators on both sides of the Atlantic.

The Dutch gambling regulator ordered it to stop on 20 January 2026 under a penalty of EUR 420,000 per week, and the French online gambling authority (ANJ) ordered internet providers to block polymarket.com on 16 July 2026.

Robinhood, Coinbase and Crypto.com appear mostly as co-defendants of Kalshi or as plaintiffs against states. Nevada's gaming regulator sued Polymarket (26 OC 00012 1B) and Coinbase (26 OC 00030 1B) in state court in early 2026, and Crypto.com's appeal against Nevada is one of the three petitions before the Supreme Court.

DraftKings Predictions, Underdog, Novig and Gemini

DraftKings Predictions is a defendant in 3 cases, three consumer class actions in Massachusetts and the Seminole Tribe's suit in Florida (Broward County CACE26016435, removed to S.D. Fla. 0:26-cv-63156 on 9 November 2026), all filed since August 2026.

Underdog and Novig are plaintiffs against state regulators, and New York's attorney general sued Gemini on 21 April 2026 (N.Y. Sup. Ct. 451603/2026).

State and regulator enforcement: where Kalshi is blocked by court order

Court orders block Kalshi's sports event contracts in Nevada, Michigan and Washington and, by a temporary order, in Louisiana as of 14 November 2026, while federal injunctions protect them in New Jersey, Illinois, Minnesota and Arizona. What moved in the last two months?

Injunctions in force: Nevada, Michigan, Washington, and Louisiana by temporary order

Nevada's First Judicial District Court entered the first state injunction against Kalshi from the bench on 3 April 2026 (26 OC 00050 1B), and its stipulated order of 24 July 2026 sets USD 120,000 per day for any failure to geofence after 12 August 2026. Whether that penalty was assessed is not confirmed in the court record.

Michigan's Ingham County court (26-1087-CZ) entered a preliminary injunction on 1 September 2026 with a penalty of USD 500,000 per day for violating the geofencing terms, and Washington's King County court (26-2-10264-3 SEA) entered its final order on 13 August 2026 after the attorney general's release reported that the Court of Appeals had refused a stay.

A Louisiana state court issued a ten-day temporary order on 12 November 2026 (21st Judicial District Court, Tangipahoa Parish, 20260004268) against ten operators; its text was not retrieved, and a hearing on 30 November 2026 is reported per the court tracker.

Stayed, regulator-only and tribal-land orders: Massachusetts, Montana, California

Massachusetts obtained the first state injunction, on 20 January 2026 in Suffolk Superior Court (2584CV02525), and it has been stayed since 17 February 2026 while the Supreme Judicial Court decides SJC-13906.

Montana's gambling regulator issued an order that stands unchallenged after Kalshi's federal suit (D. Mont. 6:26-cv-00028) lost its injunction request on 27 August 2026 and was dismissed on 21 September 2026.

In California, the Ninth Circuit held on 16 September 2026 that Kalshi's sports contracts are class III gaming on tribal lands (No. 25-7504), and the district court barred them on Blue Lake and Chicken Ranch lands on 4 November 2026, per a PACER copy of Dkt. 106 hosted by press; not yet on GovInfo.

Federal injunctions protecting Kalshi: New Jersey, Illinois, Minnesota, Arizona

New Jersey is the only state where a court of appeals has held that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling law: the Third Circuit affirmed Kalshi's injunction on 6 April 2026 (25-1922, 172 F.4th 220, 2-1).

In Illinois the Northern District entered an injunction on 30 October 2026 covering state gambling laws, licensing, fees and taxes, and appeals were noted on 30 October and 2 November (Seventh Circuit 26-3266).

Minnesota's federal court enjoined enforcement of its new prediction-market ban on 27 July 2026 (Eighth Circuit 26-2905). In Arizona, Kalshi's own injunction request was denied on 8 April 2026, but the CFTC's suit produced an injunction on 5 May 2026 that bars civil and criminal enforcement.

The CFTC's suits against 6 states

The CFTC has sued 6 states since 2 April 2026, Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, New York, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Mexico, Kentucky, Utah, Arkansas and Louisiana, and intervened in Rhode Island.

Injunctions were granted in Arizona, Minnesota and Illinois and denied in Wisconsin on 28 July 2026, with the rest undecided as of 13 November 2026 (E.D. La. 2:26-cv-02612 is the newest, filed that day). The matrix is kept in states sued by the CFTC.

Criminal charges, a city, the tribes and two European regulators

Two states have brought criminal charges against Kalshi, Arizona on 16 March 2026 (CR2026-000173, 20 misdemeanor counts, stayed under the federal injunction) and Utah on 28 October 2026 (261912852), and both cases are allegations only; no conviction exists. The City of Baltimore sued Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood and Coinbase on 13 August 2026 (C-24-CV-26-005532).

Tribes have sued in Wisconsin, California, New Mexico and Oklahoma, and the Ho-Chunk Nation's case is stayed, with a Seventh Circuit appeal (No. 26-8020) accepted on 27 October 2026 per the court tracker, docket not fetched.

In Europe, the Dutch regulator and the French ANJ have acted against Polymarket, and Paris prosecutors opened an investigation on 4 May 2026 into manipulated weather bets whose status is not confirmed in the public record.

The Dutch order and the collection decision of 19 May 2026 are described in Polymarket v KSA (Netherlands): Allegations, Court Orders and Status.

Kalshi status by state where a court or regulator order exists, as of 14 November 2026

The table lists the states where a court or regulator order governs Kalshi's sports contracts; status is the order, not app availability.

States where a suit is pending (Kentucky, Wisconsin, Rhode Island, New Mexico, Missouri, Arkansas) and every other state are in Kalshi court status in every state.

What changed in the last 60 days

0 prediction market cases were filed and 4 changed status between 15 September and 14 November 2026.

• 13 Nov: the CFTC sues Louisiana (E.D. La. 2:26-cv-02612), its eleventh state; Bright v. Kalshi moves to dismiss.
• 12 Nov: Louisiana ten-day temporary order (text not retrieved); Kalshi's federal motion for a temporary restraining order in W.D. La. 1:26-cv-04476; the CFTC sues Arkansas.
• 10 Nov: Novig v. James, S.D.N.Y. 1:26-cv-06676, injunction denied with the contracts held to be swaps (opinion not retrieved).
• 4 Nov: Blue Lake and Chicken Ranch injunction on remand, per a press-hosted PACER copy; the Ninth Circuit denies rehearing in the Nevada case on 3 or 4 November per the court tracker.
• 3 Nov: the Second Circuit denies Kalshi an injunction pending appeal in New York and Connecticut.
• 2 Nov: an injunction request is denied in Giganti v. Wisconsin Elections Commission (E.D. Wis. 1:26-cv-01934).
• 30 Oct: the Illinois injunction.
• 28 Oct: Utah's criminal charges, 26 Oct the CFTC's suit against Utah, consolidated on 12 Nov.
• 27 Oct: Seventh Circuit accepts the Ho-Chunk appeal, per the court tracker.
• 25 Sept and 16 Sept: the Sixth and Ninth Circuit rulings against Kalshi.

The dates ahead are the Louisiana federal hearing on 23 November and the state hearing on 30 November (both per the court tracker), the Michigan contempt hearing on 24 November, the Supreme Court responses on 7 December and the New York subpoena hearing on 17 December 2026.

The longer record is in what changed in gambling litigation in the last 60 days.

The legal theory in two paragraphs

Every prediction market lawsuit turns on whether a sports event contract is a "swap" under the Commodity Exchange Act, because Dodd-Frank gives the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over swaps traded on a designated contract market (7 U.S.C. 2(a)(1)(A)).

Kalshi says its contracts are swaps and that this preempts state gambling law under the Supremacy Clause, and the Third Circuit agreed 2-1 on 6 April 2026 with Judge Roth dissenting, while the Sixth Circuit held 3-0 that they are not swaps and that the Act does not preempt Ohio's or Tennessee's law.

The swaps question and the cases behind it are in how is Kalshi legal: the swaps question and the circuit split.

The circuit split is three rulings against Kalshi's position to one for it: the Third Circuit for Kalshi on 6 April 2026, the Ninth Circuit against on 28 August 2026 (Assad, 25-7516, 3-0), the Sixth Circuit against on 25 September 2026, and the Ninth Circuit again on the tribal question on 16 September 2026. The earlier Kalshi v.

CFTC (D.D.C. 1:23-cv-03257) ended with summary judgment for Kalshi on 12 September 2024 and a dismissed appeal on 7 May 2025, but it turned on the special rule at 7 U.S.C. 7a-2(c)(5)(C), the provision at issue there, which concerns election contracts.

How federal and state authority collide is set out in CFTC jurisdiction versus state gambling law.

Appellate rulings on sports event contracts and the next Supreme Court date; checked 14 November 2026.

Arbitration and loss-recovery suits: sent to arbitration or kept in court

No consumer class has been certified against a prediction market and no arbitration ruling has issued: in the consolidated Kalshi class action (In re Kalshi Sports Prediction Market Litigation, S.D.N.Y. 1:25-cv-08585, Judge Rochon) Kalshi's motion to compel arbitration and dismiss is pending as of the last docket check.

Courts have ruled both ways in other gambling cases, collected in gambling cases and arbitration clauses.

Six suits filed on 11 and 12 June 2025 use the Statute of Anne, an old loss-recovery statute, to sue for other people's losses. The table shows where each one stands.

Individual suits plead statutes such as Kentucky's KRS 372.020, Georgia's O.C.G.A. 13-8-3, Alabama's Ala. Code 8-1-150 and Massachusetts' M.G.L. c. 137 s. 1, as reported, and the Oregon suit pleads ORS 30.740 double damages; no class is certified, so no estimate exists. The statutes by state are in gambling loss recovery statutes by US state.

Settlements, judgments and orders to date

One CFTC settlement, one final judgment, one summary judgment under appeal and a handful of penalty orders make up the entire money record of prediction market litigation, and none of it went to a consumer.

Every figure above is a penalty term, a bond or a pleading. The first row is the only completed payment.

Insider-trading prosecutions and CFTC orders

Four CFTC matters punish trading on a prediction market with inside knowledge or control of the outcome, two of them with parallel criminal charges.

George Santos settled on 31 July 2026 for manipulating a contract on his own attendance, and a White House teleprompter operator settled on 28 August 2026 over "mention market" contracts, each with a three-year trading ban.

The other two are pending allegations: the CFTC's suit over trading before the Maduro operation (S.D.N.Y. 1:26-cv-03369, filed 23 April 2026, alleging more than USD 404,000 in profit, with an indictment unsealed the same day per law-firm summaries) and the suit over a Google engineer's trades (1:26-cv-04419, filed 27 May 2026, about USD 1.2 million alleged). The rules are in insider trading and manipulation on prediction markets.

Every case we track (8 cases, CSV)

The table lists all 8 prediction market cases in the record as of 14 November 2026, with court and docket, filing date, status and its date, and the primary source we read.

The same records download as CSV from the open data page under a CC BY 4.0 license.

Questions people ask

Is there a Kalshi class action settlement or payout?

No. There is no Kalshi settlement, no claim form and no payout date; the consolidated class action in S.D.N.Y. has no certified class and Kalshi's motion to compel arbitration is pending. Every case against the company is in Kalshi lawsuits.

Where are the state-by-state status and the state counts kept?

The answer for any state is a court order with a date, not a yes or no, and this page lists only the states where such an order exists. The full list is in Kalshi court status in every state.

0 attorney-general or regulator suits against operators and 6 CFTC suits against states are in the record as of 14 November 2026, and a state can appear on both sides. The matrix is in states sued by the CFTC.

Can a user who lost money on a prediction market sue?

Users have sued in at least 1 class actions and 0 individual suits, mostly under state gambling-loss recovery statutes, and none has produced a judgment or settlement yet. Which grounds have worked against casinos and sportsbooks is in can you sue a casino or sportsbook: grounds that have worked.

Whether losses can be recovered at all is covered in can you get gambling losses back.

Will the Supreme Court decide the Kalshi cases?

Three petitions are pending (26-299 Flaherty v. KalshiEX, filed 2 September 2026; 26-338 Robinhood v. Dreitzer, 10 September; 26-344 NADEX v. Nevada, 11 September), every response is due 7 December 2026, and the Court has issued no order on any of them. Pending petitions and rulings are tracked in pending appeals and high court gambling cases.

What this page does not cover

Investment risk, who profits from prediction markets and whether Kalshi "pays out" on winning trades are outside this site's scope; the site covers court cases, not trading. The wider country picture is in gambling lawsuits in the United States.

Sportsbook class actions against DraftKings, FanDuel and PrizePicks are a separate category: sports betting lawsuits: DraftKings, FanDuel, PrizePicks.

Whether manipulating a prediction market is illegal is a CFTC enforcement question under 7 U.S.C. 9(1) and 17 C.F.R. 180.1, answered on the insider trading and manipulation on prediction markets page.

Sources and method

Of the 8 cases on this page, 6 carry a status read directly from an order, docket or filed complaint; the rest rest on court press releases, regulator filings and the two trackers named below, each flagged in the table.

Primary sources are the Ninth Circuit opinions in 25-7516 and 25-7504, the Third Circuit opinion in 25-1922, the Supreme Court dockets, the Nevada Gaming Control Board orders, the Michigan and Washington attorney general releases, CFTC releases 8478-22 to 9326-26 and the French ANJ notices.

The Bransfield and Foley litigation trackers are cited as "per the court tracker", never as the source of a status. See methodology and corrections.

Filing a claim is free. GamblingLawsuits.org is a non-profit public record, not a law firm and not a claims administrator, and it carries no advertising and no operator links.