Kalshi v. Minnesota prediction-market ban: Allegations, Court Orders and Status

What this case is about

KalshiEX LLC v. Ellison is a federal suit filed on 27 May 2026 in the U.S. District Court for the District of Minnesota, docket 0:26-cv-02778-KMM-DTS, against Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison and state officials. It is one of the Prediction Market Lawsuits over whether states can ban event-contract exchanges.

Minnesota enacted the first state statute that makes it a felony to operate a prediction market, Minn. Stat. 609.7615, effective 1 August 2026.

Kalshi argues that the Commodity Exchange Act (7 U.S.C. 2(a)(1)(A)) gives the federal government exclusive jurisdiction over swaps on designated contract markets, and that the Supremacy Clause (U.S. Const. art. VI) bars the state law.

The case was heard with two companions: United States v. Minnesota (0:26-cv-02661) and QCX LLC v. Ellison (0:26-cv-02841). The CFTC sued on 19 May 2026 and Polymarket US on 4 June 2026.

Who is covered

The ruling protects CFTC-registered designated contract markets from enforcement of the Minnesota statute until final judgment. Kalshi, the CFTC and Polymarket US are the plaintiffs. The case is not a class action.

For players, the practical question is the state picture, covered in Is Kalshi Legal in Minnesota? Kalshi remains available in Minnesota as of 14 November 2026.

Is there a payout?

No payout exists in this case. It is a challenge to a state statute, the plaintiffs seek injunctive relief, and no money fund or claim process exists.

Nobody needs to file anything, and players have nothing to claim.

What the court decided

After argument on 2 July 2026, Judge Katherine Menendez granted all three preliminary injunctions on 27 July 2026. The order bars enforcement of Minn. Stat. 609.7615 against CFTC-registered designated contract markets until final judgment, and the bond was waived.

A preliminary injunction is an interim order, not a final decision on the merits. Minnesota has appealed to the Eighth Circuit (No. 26-2905), and as of 14 November 2026 that appeal is pending, according to a secondary report.

Why it matters

The statute is the first state law making it a felony to operate a prediction market, and the 27 July 2026 order blocks it for now. The Eighth Circuit appeal will test the reasoning, and the case belongs to the wider split over whether sports event contracts are swaps.

That split is explained in How Is Kalshi Legal?

Related cases

• United States and CFTC v. State of Minnesota (GL-US-0649), appealed: CFTC v. Minnesota is the federal government's companion suit.
• QCX LLC (Polymarket US) v. Ellison (GL-US-0673), appealed: Polymarket v. Ellison is the Polymarket companion.

Questions people ask

Is Kalshi legal in Minnesota?

Status depends on court orders. A federal preliminary injunction of 27 July 2026 bars enforcement of the state felony statute against CFTC-registered exchanges, and Minnesota's appeal (8th Cir. No. 26-2905) is pending.

Can you actually sue sportsbook gambling?

Players can sue in some settings, but this case is an operator challenge to a state law. It creates no claim for individual players.

Who profits from prediction markets?

This case does not address profits. It concerns whether Minnesota may criminalize operating a prediction market, and the court has blocked that for now.